I just want to mention that the error is because of filesystem permissions - the "oil refine install" command simply fixes the filesystem permissions that caused the error.
We know that. The issue is that it isn't handled properly.
Instead of just giving you the error, it breaks handling the error because that needs Log too. And this is caused by a bug in the autoloader, which I have fixed earlier today (in 1.6/develop, and backported to 1.5/develop). We're still debating whether this issue warants a 1.5.2. release.